Y Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

Fecha de publicación: 01/11/2021 Fecha Ahead of Print: 01/07/2021

Autores de I3PT

Ana Fernández Colorado

Autor
Marta De La Rosa Estadella

Autor
Anna Peig Font

Autor
Sílvia Juncà Martí

Autor
Matilde Molina Corbacho

Autor
Yeray Maldonado Sotoca

Autor
Alfons Gasset Teixidor

Autor
Montsant Jornet Gibert

Autor
Mariano Balaguer Castro

Autor

Participantes ajenos a I3PT

Bravo, L
Nepogodiev, D
Glasbey, JC
Li, E
Simoes, JFF
Kamarajah, SK
Picciochi, M
Abbott, TEF
Ademuyiwa, AO
Arnaud, AP
Brar, A
Elhadi, M
Mazingi, D
Cardoso, VR
Lawday, S
Sayyed, R
Omar, OM
de la Madina, AR
Slater, L
Venn, M
Gkoutos, G
Bhangu, A
Karwath, A
Siaw-Acheampong, K
Argus, L
Chaudhry, D
Dawson, BE
Gujjuri, RR
Jones, CS
Khatri, C
Keatley, JM
Mann, H
Marson, EJ
Mclean, KA
Taylor, EH
Tiwari, A
Trout, IM
Venn, ML
Wilkin, RJW
Dajti, I
Gjata, A
Boccalatte, L
Modolo, MM
Cox, D
Pockney, P
Townend, P
Aigner, F
Kronberger, I
Hossain, K
VanRamshorst, G
Lawani, I
Ataide, G
Baiocchi, G
Buarque, I
Gohar, M
Slavchev, M
Agarwal, A
Martin, J
Olivos, M
Calvache, J
Rivera, CJP
Hadzibegovic, AD
Kopjar, T
Mihanovic, J
Klat, J
Novysedlak, R
Christensen, P
El-Hussuna, A
Batista, S
Lincango, E
Emile, SH
Mengesha, MG
Hailu, S
Tamiru, H
Kauppila, J
Laukkarinen, J
Arnaud, A
Albertsmeiers, M
Lederhuber, H
Loffler, M
Tabiri, S
Metallidis, S
Tsoulfas, G
Lorena, MA
Grecinos, G
Mersich, T
Wettstein, D
Ghosh, D
Kembuan, G
Brouk, P
Khosravi, M
Mozafari, M
Adil, A
Mohan, HM
Zmora, O
Fiore, M
Gallo, G
Pata, F
Pellino, G
Satoi, S
Ayasra, F
Chaar, M
Fakhradiyev, IR
Jamal, M
Gulla, A
Roslani, A
Martinez, L
De La Medina, AR
Outani, O
Jonker, P
Kruijff, S
Noltes, M
Steinkamp, P
van der Plas, W
Ademuyiwa, A
Osinaike, B
Seyiolajide, J
Williams, E
Pejkova, S
Augestad, KM
Soreide, K
Al Balushi, Z
Qureshi, A
Daraghmeh, MA
Abukhalaf, S
Cukier, M
Gomez, H
Shu, S
Vasquez, X
Parreno-Sacdalan, MD
Major, P
Azevedo, J
Cunha, M
Santos, I
Zarour, A
Bonci, EA
Negoi, I
Efetov, S
Litvin, A
Ntirenganya, F
AlAmeer, E
Radenkovic, D
Xiang, FKH
Hoe, CM
Yong, JNC
Moore, R
Nhlabathi, N
Colino, RB
Bravo, AM
Jayarajah, U
Wickramasinghe, D
Elmujtaba, M
Jebril, W
Rutegard, M
Sund, M
Isik, A
Leventoglu, S
Benson, R
Caruna, E
Chakrabortee, S
Demetriades, A
Desai, A
Drake, TD
Edwards, JG
Evans, JP
Ford, S
Fotopoulou, C
Griffiths, E
Hutchinson, P
Jenkinson, MD
Khan, T
Knight, S
Kolias, A
Leung, E
McKay, S
Norman, L
Ots, R
Raghavan, V
Roberts, K
Schache, A
Shaw, R
Shaw, K
Smart, N
Stewart, G
Sundar, S
Vimalchandran, D
Wright, N
Alshryda, S
Alser, O
Breen, K
Ganly, I
Kaafarani, H
Kendall, B
Mashbari, H
Al Naggar, H
Dajti, I
Valenzuela, JI
Boccalatte, LA
Gemelli, NA
Smith, DE
Dudi-Venkata, NN
Kroon, HM
Sammour, T
Roberts, M
Mitchell, D
Lah, K
Pearce, A
Morton, A
Dawson, AC
Drane, A
Sharpin, C
Nataraja, RM
Pacilli, M
Cox, DRA
Muralidharan, V
Riddiough, GE
Clarke, EM
Jamel, W
Qin, KR
Pockney, P
Cope, D
Egoroff, N
Lott, N
Putnis, S
Ang, Z
Mitteregger, M
Uranitsch, S
Stiegler, M
Seitinger, G
Aigner, F
Lumenta, DB
Nischwitz, SP
Richtig, E
Pau, M
Srekl-Filzmaier, P
Eibinger, N
Michelitsch, B
Fediuk, M
Papinutti, A
Seidel, G
Kahn, J
Cohnert, TU
Messner, F
Ofner, D
Presl, J
Varga, M
Weitzendorfer, M
Emmanuel, K
Binder, AD
Zimmermann, M
Holawe, S
Nkenke, E
Grimm, C
Kranawetter, M
Mitul, AR
Islam, N
Karim, S
Komen, N
De Robels, S
Ang, E
De Praetere, H
Tollens, T
Schols, G
Smets, C
Haenen, L
Quintens, J
Van Belle, K
Van Ramshorst, GH
Pattyn, P
Desender, L
Martens, T
Van de Putte, D
Lerut, P
Grimonprez, A
Janssen, M
De Smul, G
Wallaert, P
Van den Eynde, J
Oosterlinck, W
Van den Eynde, R
Sermon, A
Boeckxstaens, A
Cordonnier, A
De Coster, J
Jaekers, J
Politis, C
Miserez, M
Duchateau, N
De Gheldere, C
Flamey, N
Christiano, A
Guidi, B
Minussi, AL
Castro, S
Okoba, W
Maldonado, FHR
Oliveira, P
Baldasso, T
Santos, L
Gomes, GMA
Buarque, IL
Pol-Fachin, L
Bezerra, TS
Barros, AV
da Silva, AMR
Leite, ALS
Silvestre, DWA
Ferro, CC
Araujo, MS
Lopes, LM
Damasceno, PD
Araujo, DHS
Laporte, G
Salem, MC
Guimaraes, MAC
Nacif, L
Flumignan, RLG
Nakano, LCU
Kuramoto, DAB
Aidar, ALS
Pereda, MR
Correia, RM
Santos, BC
Carvalho, AA
Amorim, JE
Neto, HJG
Areias, LL
Sousa, AF
Flumignan, CDQ
Lustre, WG
Moreno, DH
Barros, N
Baptista-Silva, JCC
Matos, LL
Kowaski, LP
Kulcsar, MAV
Nunes, KS
Teixeira, MF
Nunes, RL
Ijichi, TR
Kim, NJ
Marreiro, A
Muller, B
Awada, JB
Baiocchi, G
Kowalski, LP
Vartanian, JG
Makdissi, FB
Aguiar, S
Marques, N
Carvalho, GB
Marques, TMDM
Abdallah, EA
Zurstrassen, CE
Gross, JL
Zequi, SC
Goncalves, BT
Santos, SS
Duprat, JP
Coimbra, FJF
Cicco, R
Takeda, F
Cecconello, I
Ribeiro, U
Gatti, A
Oliva, R
Nardi, C
Slavchev, M
Atanasov, B
Belev, N
Dell, A
Bigam, D
Dajani, K
Al Riyami, S
Martin, J
Cheng, D
Yang, H
Fayad, A
Carrier, FM
Amzallag, E
Desroches, J
Ruel, M
Caminsky, NG
Boutros, M
Moon, J
Wong, EG
Vanounou, T
Pelletier, J
Wong, S
Girsowicz, E
Bayne, J
Obrand, D
Gill, H
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MacKenzie, K
Lukaszewski, M
Jamjoum, G
Richebe, P
Verdonck, O
Discepola, S
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Idrissi, M
Briatico, D
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Hassan, R
Volpe, A
Merola, S
O'Banion, LA
Lilienstein, J
Dirks, R
Marwan, H
Almasri, M
Kulkarni, G
Mehdi, M
Abouassi, A
Abdallah, M
San Andres, M
Eid, J
Aigbivbalu, E
Sundaresan, J
George, B
Ssentongo, A
Ssentongo, P
Oh, JS
Hazelton, J
Maines, J
Gusani, N
Garner, M
Horvath, S
Zheng, F
Ujiki, M
Kinnaman, G
Meagher, A
Sharma, I
Holler, E
McKenzie, K
Chan, J
Fretwell, K
Nugent, W
Khalil, A
Chen, D
Post, N
Rostkowski, T
Brahmbhatt, D
Huynh, K
Hibbard, ML
Schellenberg, M
Martin, RCG
Bhutiani, N
Giorgakis, E
Laryea, J
Bhavaraju, A
Sexton, K
Kost, M
Kimbrough, M
Burdine, L
Kalkwarf, K
Robertson, R
Gosain, A
Camp, L
Lewit, R
Kronenfeld, JP
Urrechaga, E
Goel, N
Rattan, R
Hart, V
Gilna, G
Cioci, A
Ruiz, G
Rakoczy, K
Pavlis, W
Saberi, R
Morris, R
Karam, BS
Brathwaite, CEM
Liu, H
Petrone, P
Hakmi, H
Sohail, AH
Baltazar, G
Heckburn, R
Nygaard, RM
Colonna, ET
Endorf, FW
Hill, MJ
Maiga, A
Dennis, B
Levin, JH
Lallemand, M
Choron, R
Peck, G
Soliman, F
Rehman, S
Glass, N
Juthani, B
Deisher, D
Ruzgar, NM
Ullrich, SJ
Sion, M
Paranjape, C
Kar, AR
Gillezeau, C
Rapp, J
Taioli, E
Miles, BA
Alpert, N
Podolsky, D
Coleman, NL
Callahan, MP
Ganly, I
Brown, L
Monson, JRT
Dehal, A
Abbas, A
Soliman, A
Kim, B
Jones, C
Dauer, E
Renza-Stingone, E
Hernandez, E
Gokcen, E
Kropf, E
Sufrin, H
Hirsch, H
Ross, H
Engel, J
Sewards, J
Poggio, J
Sanserino, K
Rae, L
Philp, M
Metro, M
McNelis, P
Petrov, R
Pazionis, T
Till, B
Lamm, R
Rios-Diaz, AJ
Palazzo, F
Rosengart, M
Nicholson, K
Carrick, MM
Rodkey, K
Suri, A
Callcut, R
Nicholson, S
Talathoti, N
Klaristenfeld, D
Biffl, W
Marsh, C
Schaffer, K
Berndtson, AE
Averbach, S
Curry, T
Kwan-Feinberg, R
Consorti, E
Gonzalez, R
Grolman, R
Liu, T
Merzlikin, O
Abel, MK
Ozgediz, D
Boeck, M
Kornblith, LZ
Nunez-Garcia, B
Robinson, B
Park, P
Utria, AF
Rice-Townsend, SE
Javid, P
Hauptman, J
Kieran, K
Nehra, D
Walters, A
Cuschieri, J
Davidson, GH
Nunez, J
Cosker, R
Eckhouse, S
Choudhry, A
Marx, W
Jamil, T
Seegert, S
Al-Embideen, S
Quintana, M
Jackson, H
Wexner, SD
Kent, I
Martins, PN
Alshehari, M
Al-Naggar, H
Alsayadi, M
Alyazidi, M
Shream, S
Alhaddad, W
Maqus, A
Abu Hamra'a, M
Alsayadi, R
Ghannam, R
Al-Maqtari, S
Masdoos, S
Al-Harazi, Y
Bajjah, H
Al-Ameri, S
Aldawbali, M
Gwini, GP
Mazingi, D
EuroSurg
European Soc Coloproctology ESCP
GlobalSurg
GlobalPaedSurg
ItSURG
PTSurg
SpainSurg
Italian Soc Colorectal Surg SICCR
Assoc Surg Training ASiT
ISRC
COVIDSurg Collaborative

Abstract

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.